Planning for smallpox outbreaks
Identifieur interne : 006227 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 006226; suivant : 006228Planning for smallpox outbreaks
Auteurs : Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni] ; Matt J. Keeling [Royaume-Uni] ; W. John Edmunds [Royaume-Uni] ; Raymond Gani [Royaume-Uni] ; Bryan T. Grenfell [Royaume-Uni] ; Roy M. Anderson [Royaume-Uni] ; Steve Leach [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Nature [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2003-10-16.
Abstract
Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.
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DOI: 10.1038/nature02007
Affiliations:
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Grenfell</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Roy M" sort="Anderson, Roy M" uniqKey="Anderson R" first="Roy M." last="Anderson">Roy M. 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Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Angleterre de l'Est</li></region><settlement><li>Cambridge</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Cambridge</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. 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